fear

DYOR, this dashboard is meant to be a comprehensive data reference for Bitcoin market conditions, not a trading signal generator. Always cross-check with your own research and risk management.

Last refresh: 3/5/2026, 5:50:28 PM

Composite Bottom Model

Combine all indicators into a single bottom probability score.

45Bottom Score

Current band: Neutral

Score range

  • 0 - 30 Overvalued
  • 30 - 60 Neutral
  • 60 - 80 Undervalued
  • 80 - 100 High probability bottom zone

Bottom Alert Engine

Trigger alert when at least five conditions are met.

Active conditions: 1/8

Red: risk zone

BTC price below Realized Price

70841 < 54553

OFF

MVRV Z-score below -1

Missing MVRV Z-score

UNKNOWN

Fear and Greed index below 20

Current 22 (Extreme Fear)

OFF

Dormancy flow extremely low

Missing dormancy flow

UNKNOWN

Active addresses rising

7d average is rising

ON

VIX above 30

Current 21.15

OFF

S&P 500 drawdown above 20%

Current 1.56%

OFF

Funding rate negative for extended period

Need at least 8 hourly funding points

UNKNOWN

Traffic light system: Green = strong accumulation zone, Yellow = neutral, Red = risk zone.

Layer 1: Market Price and Core Valuation

Display key valuation metrics for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Price (real-time)

$70,841.00

Market Cap

$1,418,032,816,044

Realized Cap

N/A

CryptoQuant

Realized Price

$54,553.00

CryptoQuant

MVRV Ratio

1.33

CryptoQuant

MVRV Z-Score

N/A

Optional Glassnode fallback

200 Week MA

N/A

Bottom Zone Rules

MVRV<1 / Z<0 / Z<-1

Historical bottom highlighting enabled

Price vs Realized Price

No chart data

Price vs 200W MA

No chart data

MVRV Ratio historical

Waiting for CryptoQuant series

MVRV Z-score cycle

Waiting for Glassnode series

Layer 2: On-chain Activity and OG Holder Behavior

Measure network usage and long-term holder conviction.

Active Addresses

516,794

Blockchain.com

Transaction Count

377,812

Blockchain.com

Mempool Stats

1,110,724

Blockchain.com

NVT

20.9

Primary API pending, fallback to research snapshot when needed

Exchange Reserve

2,708,000

CryptoQuant

Exchange Inflow

N/A

CryptoQuant

Exchange Outflow

N/A

CryptoQuant

Long-term holder metrics

  • Long Term Holder Supply Ratio (pending source)
  • Dormancy Flow (pending source)
  • Coin Days Destroyed (pending source)
  • LTH-SOPR (pending source)

Old OG holder activity

  • Coins > 5 years moved (pending source)
  • Coins > 10 years moved (pending source)
  • HODL waves distribution (pending source)

Signal logic

  • Low dormancy + rising active addresses => early accumulation phase
  • Old coins moving aggressively => late-cycle distribution signal

Layer 3: Market Sentiment Indicators

Add sentiment and behavioral metrics.

Crypto Fear and Greed Index

22 (Extreme Fear)

Funding Rate (perpetual futures)

1.1873e-5

Hyperliquid / Coinalyze

Open Interest

22,989

Hyperliquid / Coinalyze

Long/Short Ratio

N/A

Coinalyze

Fear and Greed timeline

Funding rate heatmap

Coinalyze series extension pending

Open interest vs price

Coinalyze series extension pending

Layer 4: Macro Asset Environment

Track macro assets that historically correlate with Bitcoin cycles.

S&P 500

6,869.5

Nasdaq

22,807.48

Gold

5,074.6

Crude Oil

71.13

DXY

99.2

Correlation BTC vs S&P 500 (90d)

N/A

Correlation BTC vs Gold (90d)

N/A

Correlation BTC vs DXY (90d)

N/A

Layer 5: Volatility and Risk Indicators

Track systemic market stress.

VIX Index

21.15

MOVE Index (bond vol)

N/A

FRED

Yield Curve (10Y-2Y)

0.55

FRED

S&P 500 Drawdown

1.56%

Put/Call Ratio

0.68

Cboe

Bear market detection rules

  • S&P 500 below 200 day moving average
  • Yield curve inversion
  • VIX > 30

Historical Backtesting Module

Overlay all indicators during 2015, 2018, 2020, 2022 to visually compare cycle bottoms.

2015

Post-2013 capitulation recovery

Focus: valuation compression + low activity base.

2018

ICO bust and long consolidation

Focus: leverage reset + deep fear regime.

2020

COVID liquidity shock

Focus: macro stress spike + rapid mean reversion.

2022

Leverage unwind cycle

Focus: systemic deleveraging + prolonged bear.

API Sources

Hyperliquid API / Binance API / CoinGecko API / CryptoQuant API / Coinalyze API / Yahoo Finance API / FRED API / Cboe Market Statistics / Alternative.me API / Blockchain.com API / Glassnode API / Bitbo API / Research Snapshot (Manual)

kkdemian
hyperliquid